In the last quarter of 2022, the United States experienced little economic growth relative to the previous quarter due to stagnant consumption levels and public spending, and a contraction in private investments. Persisting bottlenecks affecting global value chains, rising energy prices, and uncertainty related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have raised the US inflation rate, now at 7.1%, relative to the previous year. Unemployment has been unaffected and remains stable at 3.6%. The OECD economic outlook expects annual inflation to gradually decline throughout 2023, reaching almost 3% towards the end of the year, and to decrease to 2.5% by the end of 2024. GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5% until the end of 2024. This projection has been revised upwards compared to the last quarter, because the negative effect on GDP of the restrictive monetary policy enacted by the Fed (aimed at slowing down inflation) has been revised downwards. Unemployment is expected gradually increase and to stabilize at 4.7% in 2024.

April 2023