In the last quarter of 2022, Switzerland experienced no growth relative to the previous quarter due to stagnant private consumption and public spending, and a contraction of exports. Investments have increased by 1%, but are significantly lower than in the previous year. Overall, GDP is only about 0.8% higher than in the same quarter of 2021. Inflation is almost at 3%, relative to the previous year, due to persisting bottlenecks affecting global value chains, rising energy prices, and uncertainty related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is still relatively low in an international comparison, with OECD countries having experienced an average inflation of 10.13%. The unemployment rate is stable at 2%, half a percentage point lower than in the previous year. The OECD economic outlook expects annual inflation to decrease to 2% towards the end of 2023, and to 1.5% in 2024. GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3% by the end of 2024. This projection has been revised upwards compared to the last quarter, because the negative effect on GDP of SNB’s restrictive monetary policy (aimed at slowing down inflation) has been revised downwards. Unemployment is expected to increase slightly in the first half of 2023 and to steadily decrease until the end of 2024.

April 2023