In the last quarter of 2022, France experienced almost no economic growth relative to the previous quarter due to a contraction of private consumption, as well as stagnant investments, public spending and exports. Persisting bottlenecks affecting global value chains, rising energy prices, and uncertainty related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have raised the inflation rate also in France, now at 6.07%, relative to the previous year. Unemployment is stable at about 7%. The OECD economic outlook expects annual inflation to gradually decline throughout 2023, reaching 4% towards the end of the year, and to decrease below 3% by the end of 2024. GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5% until the end of 2024. This projection has been revised upwards compared to the last quarter, because the negative effect on GDP of ECB’s restrictive monetary policy (aimed at slowing down inflation) has been revised downwards. Unemployment is expected to increase gradually, reaching to 8% in 2024.

April 2023