In the second quarter of 2023, OECD countries experienced little economic growth relative to the previous quarter (+0.5%) due to little growth in private consumption, investments, and government spending. Moreover, exports have decreased by almost 1% relative to 2023-Q1. Nevertheless, GDP is still 1.6% higher than in the same quarter of 2022. The strong rebound in the first months after the pandemic, rising energy prices, and uncertainty related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have raised the inflation rate, now at almost 6.5%, considering prices of the previous year. Nevertheless, it is gradually decreasing, as a consequence of the repeated monetary policy tightening of the ECB and the Fed in the previous quarters. Unemployment has been virtually unaffected and remains stable around 4.8%. The OECD economic outlook expects annual inflation to gradually decline throughout 2023, reaching 5% towards the end of the year, and to decrease below 4% until the end of 2024. GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 5.6% until the end of 2024. Unemployment is expected to increase and to stabilize at 5.2% in 2024.

October 2023