In the last quarter of 2022, OECD countries experienced little economic growth relative to the previous quarter, due stagnant private consumption and public spending, and a contraction in private investments and exports. GDP is 1.4% higher than in the same quarter of 2021. Persisting bottlenecks affecting global value chains, rising energy prices, and uncertainty related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine have raised the average inflation rate in OECD countries, now at 10.13%, relative to the previous year. Unemployment has been unaffected and remains stable around 4.9%. The OECD economic outlook expects annual inflation to gradually decline throughout 2023, reaching 5.5% towards the end of the year, and to decrease to 5% by the end of 2024. GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.5% until the end of 2024. This projection has been revised upwards compared to the last quarter, because the negative effect on GDP of restrictive monetary policy enacted in most OECD countries (aimed at slowing down inflation) has been revised downwards. Unemployment is expected to increase to 5.5% until the first half of 2024, and then to slightly decrease towards the end of the year.

April 2023