During the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the GDP of OECD countries has increased, on average, by 0.7% relative to 2020-Q3. The modest growth in the last quarter of the year did not allow them to reach the GDP levels prior to the outbreak of the pandemic (-3.44%). The OECD countries experienced a sharp decline in private consumption, which has been counteracted by an increase in investments, government spending and exports. Except for government spending, all GDP components are significantly lower than their pre-crisis levels. On average, the OECD predicts GDP to grow at an annual rate of 5% from 2021, as economic activity transits towards normality. The average unemployment rate of 6.9% decreased by 0.75 percentage points relative to the third quarter of the year. In the first half of 2021, the OECD expects unemployment to grow up to 7.5% as countries tighten containment measures to avoid a third wave of the pandemic and then to decline gradually. Prices are relatively stable.

April 2021